The term structure of interest rates has been a relatively reliable predictor of recessions in the past. The term structure in the United States has been negatively sloped since the middle of 2023.

The term structure curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term yields, has flattened. This indicates that investors are less confident that interest rates ...

In this article a new methodology for estimating the term structure of interest rates is developed. Using polynomial splines, a reliable approximation to term structure may depend crucially upon ...

Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Annual Review of Financial Economics 16 (2024): 115–151.