AI doesn’t just simulate human thinking and language—it mimics our cognitive biases too. Overconfidence is one of the most powerful and overlooked issues.

In their new book, three acclaimed researchers share what happens when you study the calibration of confidence levels among different professions in which predictions are integral to the work. With ...

Overconfidence. The word itself is irritating. Knowing that it often works is infuriating. We’d prefer to believe that it, like pride, will reliably trip and stumble its way to a predictable fall and ...

Shortly before the first shots were fired in the summer of 1914, a German general predicted that “in two weeks we shall defeat France, then we shall turn ‘round, defeat Russia, and then we shall march ...

Confidence can be a slippery thing. It’s a good and necessary characteristic for success, but in overabundance, it can devolve into recklessness and poor decision-making. Life has a way of teaching us ...

This year’s loss to the Cyclones felt particularly potent, leaving an empty pit in the stomachs of fans. But why? Had this been any other game, it would have been disappointing, certainly, but not ...

We want our leaders to be confident. If they aren’t, who will listen to them? At the same time, an overconfident leader — one who is ignorant of one’s own limitations — can be detrimental to an ...

Yes, Prince, did you have your hand raised? Image from Getty. There is an important reason for writing this Mind Games series of posts. I am burdened with glorious purpose. Most fantasy baseball ...